Pretoria (South Africa) ↔ Harare (Zimbabwe)

Pretoria (South Africa) ↔ Harare (Zimbabwe)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: Southern Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~200,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~189,756 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~210,512 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~2.7% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: Cross-border commuters, business, diplomatic staff, diaspora
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Johannesburg, Bulawayo, Lusaka
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 7–10 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $250–$350 round trip
  
  

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$150 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$30 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$10–12 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Competitive with long-distance bus and indirect air
  
  

• Seat load target: 65%+ breakeven on narrow-body equipment
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Pretoria: Government and diplomatic capital of South Africa
  
  

• Harare: Economic and political hub of Zimbabwe
  
  

• Cross-border trade and strong Zimbabwean diaspora in South Africa
  
  

• Economic migration and frequent short-term work travel
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: Embraer E190, A220-300, CRJ900
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~1hr 45min
  
  

• Range: All aircraft suitable for short-haul regional service
  
  

• Runway length: Pretoria Wonderboom Airport requires runway upgrade for full narrow-body service
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: Daily
  
  

• Scaling target: 2–3x daily within 9–12 months
  
  

• Ideal timing: Morning and evening roundtrip
  
  

• Feeder network: Local Pretoria demand and informal road-to-air shift
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• Pulls informal road travelers into formal air travel
  
  

• Cuts commuting burden for short-term cross-border workers
  
  

• Supports regional government, embassy, and development staff
  
  

• Reduces congestion at OR Tambo with direct point-to-point option
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• Fastjet Zimbabwe
  
  

• Airlink
  
  

• South African Airways
  
  

• Zimbabwe Airways