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Nairobi (Kenya) ↔ Douala (Cameroon)

Nairobi (Kenya) ↔ Douala (Cameroon)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: East–Central Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

Current demand (2024): ~46,000 passengers/year
Past demand (2022): ~44,000 passengers
Forecast demand (2026): ~48,116 passengers
Annual growth rate: ~2.3% CAGR
Main traveler types: Trade, oil/gas, NGO, diplomatic
Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Lomé, Casablanca
Total travel time saved with direct flight: 5–8 hours per trip
Average ticket cost (2024): $900–$1,300 round trip

2. Revenue Projections

Estimated average yield: ~$207 per passenger
Estimated annual route revenue: ~$9.5 million
Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$2.5–3.5 million
Pricing advantage: Direct route could reduce fares by 20–30%
Seat load target: 60%+ sustainable operations

3. Economic Justification

Nairobi: East African business and logistics hub
Douala: Major port for Central African oil and imports
Strong trade interest between Kenya and Cameroon
East–Central Africa air access remains limited

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

Aircraft types: Embraer E195-E2, A320neo, Boeing 737 MAX 8
Flight time (direct): ~4hr 45min
Range: Covered by all listed aircraft
Runway length: Capable at both airports

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

Initial frequency: 2x weekly
Scaling target: 4x weekly within 12–18 months
Ideal timing: Afternoon departure from Nairobi, morning return from Douala
Feeder network: Nairobi regional business links, Douala oil/mining traffic

6. Strategic Value

Stronger East–Central African trade bridge
Reduces multi-stop itineraries
Opens new route for energy sector and logistics
Supports NGO and development partner travel

7. Recommended Airlines

Kenya Airways
ASKY Airlines
Afrijet