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Nairobi (Kenya) ↔ Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire)

Nairobi (Kenya) ↔ Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: East–West Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

Current demand (2024): ~57,000 passengers/year
Past demand (2022): ~54,450 passengers
Forecast demand (2026): ~59,661 passengers
Annual growth rate: ~2.3% CAGR
Main traveler types: Banking, diplomatic, trade, conference, tourism
Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Accra, Casablanca
Total travel time saved with direct flight: 8–12 hours per trip
Average ticket cost (2024): $900–$1,200 round trip

2. Revenue Projections

Estimated average yield: ~$202 per passenger
Estimated annual route revenue: ~$11.5 million
Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$3–5 million
Pricing advantage: Reduced multi-leg routing costs
Seat load target: 65%+ breakeven on mid-size narrow-body

3. Economic Justification

Nairobi: East Africa’s financial and trade capital
Abidjan: Francophone West Africa’s banking center
Increased demand from pan-African banking and telecom sectors
Growing multilateral institution activity across both cities

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

Aircraft types: A320neo, Boeing 737 MAX 8, Embraer E195-E2
Flight time (direct): ~6hr 15min
Range: All listed aircraft suitable
Runway length: Sufficient at both airports for listed aircraft

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

Initial frequency: 2x weekly
Scaling target: 3x weekly within 9–12 months
Ideal timing: Evening departure from Nairobi, mid-morning return from Abidjan
Feeder network: Nairobi–Lusaka–Kigali; Abidjan–Dakar–Lomé

6. Strategic Value

Stronger francophone–anglophone business ties
Easier movement for multilateral institutions
Supports intra-African tourism between hubs
Shorter, single-hop routing for conferences and trade

7. Recommended Airlines

Kenya Airways
Air Côte d’Ivoire
ASKY Airlines
RwandAir