Lusaka (Zambia) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Lusaka (Zambia) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: Southern–East Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~54,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~51,900 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~56,800 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~2.7% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: Leisure tourists, business travelers, NGO staff
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Johannesburg
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 4–6 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $850–1,020 round trip
  
  

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$211 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$11.4 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$2.2–2.6 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Reduced reliance on multi-stop connections
  
  

• Seat load target: 65–70%
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Lusaka: Safari gateway and copper export center
  
  

• Nairobi: East Africa financial and corporate hub
  
  

• No consistent daily direct link despite strong market size
  
  

• Current travel options require 1–2 stops
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: Boeing 737 MAX 8, A320neo
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~3hr 15min
  
  

• Range: Within capabilities
  
  

• Runway length: Adequate at both airports
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: 3x weekly
  
  

• Scaling target: Daily within 24 months
  
  

• Ideal timing: Morning departure from Lusaka, early afternoon return from Nairobi
  
  

• Feeder network: Inbound from Southern Africa to Lusaka, outbound from Nairobi to East Africa and Asia
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• Links safari and wildlife tourism hubs
  
  

• Connects Southern Africa mining region with East Africa finance sector
  
  

• Expands NGO and diplomatic access between regions
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• Kenya Airways
  
  

• Proflight Zambia
  
  

• RwandAir