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Lagos (Nigeria) ↔ Lusaka (Zambia)

Lagos (Nigeria) ↔ Lusaka (Zambia)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West–Southern Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

Current demand (2024): ~50,000 passengers/year
Past demand (2022): ~47,603 passengers
Forecast demand (2026): ~52,795 passengers
Annual growth rate: ~2.1% CAGR
Main traveler types: Business (mining, logistics), diplomatic, NGO
Top O&D substitute cities: Nairobi, Addis Ababa, Johannesburg
Total travel time saved with direct flight: 8–12 hours per trip
Average ticket cost (2024): $600–$700 round trip

2. Revenue Projections

Estimated average yield: ~$300 per passenger
Estimated annual route revenue: ~$15 million
Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$4–6 million
Pricing advantage: Shorter routing could reduce connection costs by 20%
Seat load target: 60%+ breakeven for narrow-body aircraft

3. Economic Justification

Lagos: Financial capital of West Africa
Lusaka: Hub for mining sector and Southern Africa development agencies
Trade corridors tied to copper, oil, and agribusiness
NGO and policy travel between ECOWAS and SADC

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

Aircraft types: A320neo, Boeing 737 MAX 8, Embraer E195-E2
Flight time (direct): ~5hr 45min
Range: All options suitable
Runway length: Sufficient at both Lagos and Lusaka airports

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

Initial frequency: 2x weekly
Scaling target: 4x weekly within 12 months
Ideal timing: Evening departure from Lagos, early morning return
Feeder network: Connect Lagos with Accra, Abidjan; Lusaka with Ndola, Lilongwe

6. Strategic Value

Shorter links for regional corporations
Improves access for oil and mining executives
Strengthens ECOWAS–SADC aviation ties
Adds travel options for regional NGO and development staff

7. Recommended Airlines

Air Peace
Zambia Airways
ASKY Airlines
RwandAir