Lagos (Nigeria) ↔ Durban (South Africa)

Bamako (Mali) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West–Southern Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~60,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~56,340 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~63,245 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~2.5% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: Business, manufacturing, tourism
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Johannesburg, Nairobi, Addis Ababa
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 6–9 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $1,000–$1,250 round trip
  
  

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$235 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$14 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$3.4–4.2 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Direct fares could drop by 20–30%
  
  

• Seat load target: 65–70% breakeven range
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Nigeria and South Africa: Largest manufacturing and financial markets in Sub-Saharan Africa
  
  

• Durban: Key logistics, shipping, and industrial zone
  
  

• Lagos: Primary West African trade and banking center
  
  

• No nonstop service between two major economic centers
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: Boeing 737 MAX 8, A321XLR, A330-800
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~6hr 45min
  
  

• Range: Meets sector requirements
  
  

• Runway length: Both airports suitable for narrow-body and medium widebody aircraft
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: 3x weekly
  
  

• Scaling target: 5x weekly within 12 months
  
  

• Ideal timing: Midday departure from Lagos, early evening return from Durban
  
  

• Feeder network: Access to regional destinations via both hubs
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• Trade and supply chain link between two high-volume corridors
  
  

• Alternative to Johannesburg for Southern Africa entry
  
  

• Supports ECOWAS–SADC air connectivity
  
  

• Expands tourism links between Nigeria and KwaZulu-Natal
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• Air Peace
  
  

• South African Airways
  
  

• RwandAir