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Lagos (Nigeria) ↔ Dakar (Senegal)

Lagos (Nigeria) ↔ Dakar (Senegal)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West Africa**

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

Current demand (2024): ~76,000 passengers/year
Past demand (2022): ~71,120 passengers
Forecast demand (2026): ~80,387 passengers
Annual growth rate: ~2.9% CAGR
Main traveler types: Business, government, cultural, NGO, diaspora
Top O&D substitute cities: Abidjan, Accra, Casablanca, Lome
Total travel time saved with direct flight: 3–5 hours per trip
Average ticket cost (2024): $950–$1,250 round trip

2. Revenue Projections

Estimated average yield: ~$120 per passenger
Estimated annual route revenue: ~$9.1 million
Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$2.6–4.3 million
Pricing advantage: Non-stop flight could lower fares by 25–35%
Seat load target: 65%+ breakeven in year one

3. Economic Justification

Nigeria GDP growth: 3.3%
Senegal GDP growth: 4.7%
Lagos: ECOWAS’s largest commercial hub
Dakar: Regional logistics and political center
Shared cultural ties, diaspora, and regional business traffic

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

Aircraft types: Embraer E195-E2, A220-300, Boeing 737 MAX 8
Flight time (direct): ~3hr 30min
Range: Fully within regional jet limits
Runway length: Suitable at both ends

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

Initial frequency: 4x weekly
Scaling target: Daily within 10 months
Ideal timing: Midday departure from Lagos, afternoon return from Dakar
Feeder network: West African links through Accra, Banjul, Freetown, and Niamey

6. Strategic Value

Connects major ECOWAS economies
Speeds up business and intergovernmental visits
Adds tourism access between Nigeria and Senegal
Eases air access to francophone and anglophone markets

7. Recommended Airlines

Air Peace
ASKY Airlines
Air Senegal
Africa World Airlines