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Gaborone (Botswana) ↔ Kigali (Rwanda)

Gaborone (Botswana) ↔ Kigali (Rwanda)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: Southern–East Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

Current demand (2024): ~17,000 passengers/year
Past demand (2022): ~16,210 passengers
Forecast demand (2026): ~17,810 passengers
Annual growth rate: ~2.3% CAGR
Main traveler types: Diamond sector executives, government officials, conference delegates
Top O&D substitute cities: Johannesburg, Addis Ababa, Nairobi
Total travel time saved with direct flight: 7–10 hours per trip
Average ticket cost (2024): $850–1,050 round trip

2. Revenue Projections

Estimated average yield: ~$229 per passenger
Estimated annual route revenue: ~$3.9 million
Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$700,000–1.1 million
Pricing advantage: Eliminates costly multi-stop itineraries
Seat load target: 58–63%

3. Economic Justification

Gaborone: Global diamond trade center
Kigali: Leading African MICE and conference destination
No direct air link between Botswana and Rwanda
Current routings require 1–2 stopovers

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

Aircraft types: Embraer E190-E2, A220-300
Flight time (direct): ~5hr 45min
Range: Within capabilities
Runway length: Suitable for regional narrow-body operations at both airports

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

Initial frequency: 2x weekly
Scaling target: 3x weekly within 18 months
Ideal timing: Morning departure from Gaborone, afternoon return from Kigali
Feeder network: Potential connection support via Johannesburg or Lusaka

6. Strategic Value

Creates Southern–East Africa corporate and conference corridor
Improves diamond and high-value goods trade flow
Supports intra-African MICE integration

7. Recommended Airlines

RwandAir
Air Botswana
Airlink