Dakar (Senegal) ↔ Lusaka (Zambia)

Dakar (Senegal) ↔ Lusaka (Zambia)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West–Southern Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~28,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~26,680 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~29,392 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~2.4% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: NGO, government, trade, diplomatic
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Johannesburg
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 9–13 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $750–$900 round trip
  
  

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$285 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$8 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$2–3.5 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Route consolidation could reduce costs for NGOs and agencies
  
  

• Seat load target: 60%+ breakeven with regional jets
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Dakar: ECOWAS policy and development base
  
  

• Lusaka: SADC NGO and trade activity center
  
  

• Agricultural, education, and health sectors span both regions
  
  

• Active NGO movement between francophone and anglophone Africa
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: Embraer E195-E2, A220-300, A319
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~6hr 45min
  
  

• Range: All aircraft within operational scope
  
  

• Runway length: Adequate at both airports for listed aircraft
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: 2x weekly
  
  

• Scaling target: 3x weekly after 9 months
  
  

• Ideal timing: Morning departure from Dakar, evening return from Lusaka
  
  

• Feeder network: Dakar–Abidjan–Bamako; Lusaka–Harare–Ndola
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• Shorter, predictable travel for NGO coordination
  
  

• Easier movement for technical exchange and regional consultants
  
  

• Promotes ECOWAS–SADC air linkage
  
  

• Facilitates AfCFTA business activity
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• Air Senegal
  
  

• Proflight Zambia
  
  

• RwandAir
  
  

• ASKY Airlines