Dakar (Senegal) ↔ Libreville (Gabon)

Dakar ↔ Libreville

Route Status: Unserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West–Central Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~90,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~85,765 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~94,279 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~2.5% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: Business, diplomatic, NGO, and eco-tourism
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Casablanca, Addis Ababa, Abidjan, Paris
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 4–7 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $800–$1,200 round trip
  
  

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$120 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$10.8 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$3–5 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Direct flight could reduce fares by 30–40%
  
  

• Seat load target: 65%+ breakeven within 12 months
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Senegal GDP growth: 4.7%
  
  

• Gabon GDP growth: 3.1%
  
  

• Libreville: Key oil, timber, and mining trade hub
  
  

• Dakar: West African economic and air transport center
  
  

• UN, ECOWAS, and regional NGOs operate frequently between the cities
  
  

• Tourism: Growing demand for Gabon’s rainforests and Senegal’s coastal access
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: A220-300, Embraer E195-E2, A320neo
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~3hr 45min
  
  

• Range: Well within needed distance
  
  

• Runway length: Both airports equipped for narrow-body ops
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: 3x weekly
  
  

• Scaling target: Daily within 12 months if >70% average load
  
  

• Ideal timing: Evening departure from Dakar, morning return from Libreville
  
  

• Feeder network: Utilize Dakar’s links to ECOWAS cities and Libreville’s connections to Brazzaville and Yaoundé
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• Cuts out lengthy/inefficient overnight layovers
  
  

• Helps Gabonese and Senegalese businesses reach each other’s markets
  
  

• Supports regional government and NGO travel
  
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• ASKY Airlines (Lomé-based)
  
  

• Air Senegal
  
  

• RwandAir (strategic expansion westward)
  
  

• Africa World Airlines (for potential codeshare or wet lease)