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Dakar (Senegal) ↔ Antananarivo (Madagascar)

Dakar (Senegal) ↔ Antananarivo (Madagascar)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West–Indian Ocean

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

Current demand (2024): ~14,000 passengers/year
Past demand (2022): ~13,377 passengers
Forecast demand (2026): ~14,715 passengers
Annual growth rate: ~2.5% CAGR
Main traveler types: Tourists, students, NGO and cultural exchange travelers
Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Paris, Nairobi
Total travel time saved with direct flight: 9–13 hours per trip
Average ticket cost (2024): $950–1,250 round trip

2. Revenue Projections

Estimated average yield: ~$245 per passenger
Estimated annual route revenue: ~$3.4 million
Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$800,000–1.2 million
Pricing advantage: 20–30% below current multi-leg options
Seat load target: 55–60%

3. Economic Justification

Dakar: West African diplomatic and air traffic hub
Antananarivo: Tourism-dependent economy with limited West African links
Educational and NGO exchange routes underserved
Opportunity to capture outbound tourism and student traffic

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

Aircraft types: A320neo, Boeing 737 MAX 8
Flight time (direct): ~8hr 45min
Range: Within aircraft limits
Runway length: Sufficient at both airports

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

Initial frequency: 1x weekly
Scaling target: 2x weekly with seasonal demand
Ideal timing: Overnight eastbound, midday westbound
Feeder network: Dakar’s West African cities, Antananarivo’s coastal towns

6. Strategic Value

West Africa to Indian Ocean leisure bridge
Reduced dependency on Europe for transit
Links tourism, student, and NGO flows

7. Recommended Airlines

Air Senegal
Air Madagascar
Ethiopian Airlines (via partial tag-on or codeshare)