Cape Town (South Africa) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Cape Town (South Africa) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West–East Africa**

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~140,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~129,300 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~150,882 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~3% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: Business, NGO, diaspora, government, leisure
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Kigali, Johannesburg, Dubai
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 4–6 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $950–$1,350 round trip
  
  

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$214 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$30 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$8.4–13 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Direct service could reduce fares by 25%
  
  

• Seat load target: 70%+ breakeven within 12 months
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Nigeria GDP growth: 3.3%
  
  

• Kenya GDP growth: 5.0%
  
  

• Lagos and Nairobi are the commercial capitals of two of Africa’s largest economies
  
  

• High concentration of tech, fintech, manufacturing, and logistics firms
  
  

• Growing demand for faster intra-African B2B travel
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: Boeing 737 MAX 8, A321XLR, A330-200 (for high-capacity variant)
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~5hr 30min
  
  

• Range: Within capabilities for narrow- and wide-body aircraft
  
  

• Runway length: Both airports suitable for medium and long-haul ops
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: 4x weekly
  
  

• Scaling target: Daily within 9 months
  
  

• Ideal timing: Late afternoon departure from Lagos, overnight return from Nairobi
  
  

• Feeder network: Connections to Accra, Abidjan, Entebbe, and Kigali
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• Serves two top-tier African aviation hubs
  
  

• Cuts reliance on inefficient third-country stopovers
  
  

• Opens direct access for Nigeria–Kenya SME and corporate markets
  
  

• Supports intra-African trade under AfCFTA
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• Kenya Airways
  
  

• Air Peace
  
  

• ASKY Airlines
  
  

• RwandAir