Cape Town (South Africa) ↔ Lagos (Nigeria)

Cape Town (South Africa) ↔ Lagos (Nigeria)

Route Status: Unserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: Southern–West Africa**

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~94,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~89,683 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~98,321 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~2.3% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: Oil and gas executives, trade officials, tourism, diaspora visits
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Nairobi, Johannesburg, Doha
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 6–9 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $850–$1,250 round trip
  
  

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$119 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$11.2 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$3.2–5.1 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Nonstop option could reduce fares by 30–35%
  
  

• Seat load target: 65%+ breakeven within 12 months
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Nigeria GDP growth: 3.3%
  
  

• South Africa GDP growth: 1.9%
  
  

• Cape Town: hub for tourism, finance, and trade exhibitions
  
  

• Lagos: center for oil, fintech, and multinational business travel
  
  

• Strong travel volume between oil sectors and intergovernmental partnerships
  
  

• Existing indirect options often require multiple overnight layovers
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: A321XLR, Boeing 737 MAX 8, A320neo
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~6hr 30min
  
  

• Range: Within safe range for all listed types
  
  

• Runway length: Both airports support long-haul narrow-body ops
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: 2–3x weekly
  
  

• Scaling target: 4–5x weekly within 18 months
  
  

• Ideal timing: Evening departure from Cape Town, midday return from Lagos
  
  

• Feeder network: Connect to Port Harcourt, Abuja, Durban, and East Africa
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• No direct route between two of Africa’s biggest cities
  
  

• Traffic split across long, inefficient connections
  
  

• Business, energy, and tourism sectors depend on faster access
  
  

• Growth from Nigerian diaspora in Cape Town and surrounding areas
  
  

• Demand base includes both leisure and high-yield travelers
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• Air Peace
  
  

• South African Airways
  
  

• Green Africa Airways
  
  

FlySafair (possible codeshare or wet lease)