Bamako (Mali) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Bamako (Mali) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West–East Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~32,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~30,463 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~33,292 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~2% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: Government, business, NGO, and tourism
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Casablanca, Abidjan
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 6–10 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $850–$1,150 round trip
  
  

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$215 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$6.8 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$1.7–2.3 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Direct fares could drop by 25%
  
  

• Seat load target: 60–65% breakeven range
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Mali: Strategic development and mining corridor
  
  

• Kenya: East Africa’s aviation and logistics hub
  
  

• No direct service between major AU and NGO partner states
  
  

• Strong institutional, trade, and tourism links emerging
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: A220-300, Embraer E195-E2, Boeing 737 MAX 8
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~6hr 20min
  
  

• Range: Within limits for all models
  
  

• Runway length: Meets narrow-body requirements
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: 2x weekly
  
  

• Scaling target: 3x weekly within 12–18 months
  
  

• Ideal timing: Evening departure from Nairobi, overnight return from Bamako
  
  

• Feeder network: Nairobi to East Africa and Indian Ocean; Bamako to West Africa ECOWAS points
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• Improves West–East Africa coordination
  
  

• Useful for AU, donor, and NGO operations
  
  

• Direct access for business and leisure travel
  
  

• Supports air access goals of AfCFTA
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• Kenya Airways
  
  

• ASKY Airlines
  
  

• Air Côte d’Ivoire