Bamako (Mali) ↔ Lusaka (Zambia)

Bamako (Mali) ↔ Lusaka (Zambia)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West–Southern Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~22,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~20,870 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~23,300 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~2.5% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: Mining professionals, agro-business, NGO and diplomatic travelers
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Johannesburg, Nairobi
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 10–13 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $850–$1,150 round trip
  
  

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$120 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$4.7 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$1.3–2.2 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Lower prices from reduced layover costs
  
  

• Seat load target: 58%+ breakeven with narrow-body or regional jet
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Mali GDP growth: 3.8%
  
  

• Zambia GDP growth: 4.3%
  
  

• Lusaka: Copper and maize export center
  
  

• Bamako: Key Sahel trade and development zone
  
  

• No direct mining or agri-export air corridor between the two
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: Embraer E190-E2, A220-300, Boeing 737 MAX
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~5hr 30min
  
  

• Range: Within limits for modern regional or narrow-body jets
  
  

• Runway length: Both airports suitable for medium-haul aircraft
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: 2x weekly
  
  

• Scaling target: 3–4x weekly within 18 months
  
  

• Ideal timing: Mid-morning departure from Bamako, early evening return from Lusaka
  
  

• Feeder network: Potential Mali-bound connections via West Africa; Zambia feed from regional cities like Ndola and Livingstone
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• Connects Francophone West Africa to southern mining markets
  
  

• Reduces logistical delays for resource-focused industries
  
  

• Improves efficiency for regional development missions
  
  

• Opens up investment routes across agriculture and mining
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• ASKY Airlines
  
  

• Ethiopian Airlines (via wet lease or partnership)
  
  

• Air Burkina
  
  

• Proflight Zambia