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Antananarivo (Madagascar) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Antananarivo (Madagascar) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Route Status: Seasonal
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: Indian Ocean–East Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

Current demand (2024): ~22,000 passengers/year
Past demand (2022): ~20,952 passengers
Forecast demand (2026): ~23,107 passengers
Annual growth rate: ~2.5% CAGR
Main traveler types: Tourists, NGO personnel, trade professionals
Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Johannesburg, Mauritius
Total travel time saved with direct flight: 6–9 hours per trip
Average ticket cost (2024): $850–1,100 round trip

2. Revenue Projections

Estimated average yield: ~$220 per passenger
Estimated annual route revenue: ~$4.8 million
Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$1.2–1.6 million
Pricing advantage: 25–35% savings vs current routes
Seat load target: 60%

3. Economic Justification

Antananarivo: High-growth outbound tourism
Nairobi: East Africa’s primary air and trade hub
Strong ties through development, conservation, and education
Seasonal travel peak alignment with regional holidays

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

Aircraft types: A220-300, Embraer E190-E2
Flight time (direct): ~4hr 50min
Range: Within operational range
Runway length: Meets requirements at both airports

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

Initial frequency: 2x weekly (seasonal)
Scaling target: 3x weekly during peak months
Ideal timing: Departures timed for regional safari and leisure connections
Feeder network: Madagascar domestic routes, connections from Mombasa and Kisumu

6. Strategic Value

Adds seasonal leisure option for East African travelers
Connects wildlife and eco-tourism markets
Reduces friction for NGO, student, and trade visits

7. Recommended Airlines

Air Madagascar
Kenya Airways
Air Austral