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Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) ↔ Dakar (Senegal)

Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) ↔ Dakar (Senegal)

Route Status: Underserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: East–West Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

Current demand (2024): ~125,000 passengers/year
Past demand (2022): ~120,000 passengers
Forecast demand (2026): ~130,744 passengers
Annual growth rate: ~2.3% CAGR
Main traveler types: AU officials, NGO staff, trade delegates, business travelers
Top O&D substitute cities: Abidjan, Lomé, Paris, Nairobi
Total travel time saved with direct flight: 6–10 hours per trip
Average ticket cost (2024): $1,000–$1,400 round trip

2. Revenue Projections

Estimated average yield: ~$225 per passenger
Estimated annual route revenue: ~$28 million
Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$6–8 million
Pricing advantage: Direct link could reduce premium fares by 25%
Seat load target: 65%+ for sustainable operations

3. Economic Justification

Addis Ababa: African Union HQ and East African airline hub
Dakar: Key West African trade and diplomatic center
High volume of official travel between AU agencies
Growing intra-African trade under AfCFTA

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

Aircraft types: Boeing 737 MAX 8, A321XLR, A330-200
Flight time (direct): ~7hr 15min
Range: Fully covered by listed aircraft
Runway length: Suitable at both airports for medium/long-haul ops

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

Initial frequency: 3x weekly
Scaling target: Daily by Year 2 with institutional travel contracts
Ideal timing: Red-eye departure from Addis, late morning return from Dakar
Feeder network: Addis East African feed, Dakar West African diplomacy/trade links

6. Strategic Value

Faster AU and AfCFTA meeting access
Easier travel for UN, diplomatic, and NGO missions
Key link between francophone and anglophone blocs
Boosts East–West African coordination

7. Recommended Airlines

Ethiopian Airlines
ASKY Airlines (with ET codeshare)
Air Senegal