Abuja (Nigeria) ↔ Nairobi (Kenya)

Abuja ↔ Nairobi

Route Status: Unserved
Route Type: Intra-African international
Region: West–East Africa

1. Demand & Passenger Traffic

• Current demand (2024): ~110,000 passengers/year
  
  

• Past demand (2022): ~104,900 passengers
  
  

• Forecast demand (2026): ~114,950 passengers
  
  

• Annual growth rate: ~2.3% CAGR
  
  

• Main traveler types: Business, NGO, diplomatic, trade, academic
  
  

• Top O&D substitute cities: Addis Ababa, Kigali, Istanbul, Doha
  
  

• Total travel time saved with direct flight: 5–8 hours per trip
  
  

• Average ticket cost (2024): $900–$1,300 round trip

2. Revenue Projections

• Estimated average yield: ~$114 per passenger
  
  

• Estimated annual route revenue: ~$12.5 million
  
  

• Potential net revenue after ops costs: ~$3.5–5.5 million
  
  

• Pricing advantage: Direct service could reduce fares by 25–35%
  
  

• Seat load target: 65%+ breakeven within 12 months
  
  

3. Economic Justification

• Nigeria GDP growth: 3.3%
  
  

• Kenya GDP growth: 5.0%
  
  

• Abuja as a center for government and ECOWAS programs
  
  

• Nairobi as a regional base for finance, trade, and aid
  
  

• Increased travel between regional banks, oil and gas firms, and logistics companies
  
  

• Frequent academic and diplomatic exchanges between capitals
  
  

4. Aircraft & Operational Details

• Aircraft types: Boeing 737 MAX, A320neo, Embraer E195-E2
  
  

• Flight time (direct): ~5hr 15min
  
  

• Range: All aircraft within required range
  
  

• Runway length: Both airports equipped for narrow-body ops
  
  

5. Proposed Launch Strategy

• Initial frequency: 3x weekly
  
  

• Scaling target: Daily within 12 months if >70% load
  
  

• Ideal timing: Morning outbound from Abuja, evening return from Nairobi
  
  

• Feeder network: Links to Lagos, Enugu, Mombasa, and Kigali
  
  

6. Strategic Value

• No direct connection between major West and East African capitals
  
  

• Missed AfCFTA corridor link between Nigeria and Kenya
  
  

• Indirect flights too long and expensive
  
  

• Demand driven by development groups, trade missions, and regional investors
  
  

• Existing travel split across multiple hub airlines
  
  

• Consistent traffic with no seasonal drop-offs
  
  

7. Recommended Airlines

• Kenya Airways
  
  

• Air Peace
  
  

• RwandAir (potential codeshare)
  
  

Ethiopian Airlines (sub-regional carrier codeshare)